Why the Fed matters.

See if you can pick where the Fed press conference was on this 5 day chart of the S&P?  Soon as we start going up volume drys up.

Before the Fed had to actually do QE and QE2 to make the market move, now they just hint at it and we get the same effect.  Here's the fun part no ones seems to talk about.  QE3 what's the cost?  See if you can spot where of this 5 day chart of the UUP, dollar index etf, the Fed conference was?  So are stocks really going up or is the dollar going down and since stocks are bought in dollars the price is just adjusting for a dollar that's value is declining.

Dollar goes down guess what goes up.  Everything else.  Here's the oil chart.

Coming Week

Everything in my mind says sell except the price action.  Right now the Dow Futures are up 60 points after Friday's insane move up.  Housing bad, Unemployment bad, GDP going down, etc S&P goes up.  But you cannot fix stupid, so I'm not a seller yet but if the upward momentum waives it's time to leave the party.

?

So GDP estimate's continue to drop, we're down to 1%.  And now the Nasdaq is up 2% today.  I'd love to hear why?

Fed Friday

Well Bernanke didn't say QE 3 and down we go but its not a panic or at least yet.  Maybe because they did use the carrot out there that if things do turn bad they can jump in later.  So we're still bad news is good news and good news is great news.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenspan_put

Morning Thoughts

Just like before http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/08/unemployment.html.  today's initial unemployment number for last week was revised up.

Fun fact Apple accounts for about 15% of the QQQQ.  How well did Microsoft do when Gates left?

Morning Trade

And we're back to my favorite mind set good news is good news and bad news means the Fed will have to save us, so that's good news too.  Basically everything goes up.  Looks like my thought that nothing would happen was wrong.  http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/08/fed-friday.html

USO

On July 20, 2010
USO - 34.82
Oil - 77.54 - or settlement of front month CL futures contract at that time

July 20 2011
USO - 38.40
Oil - 97.80

USO - 10%
Oil - 26%