Thursday, December 8, 2011

Sit On Your Hands

Unemployment claims drop big, waiting for next week's revision up, and market jumps up.  S&P finally got over the 200 day for literally a minute and then smacked right back down by ECB rumors.  US markets are still run by Europe and waiting for this weekends answer.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

200 Day vs Santa

S&P ran up to the 200 day and then downgrade warnings on basically everybody in Europe and failed 200 day breakout attempt #1.  Really it's just wait for the weekend and see for save Euro conference #140, there's as many of these as UFC fights.  Chart wise we're looking like a failed upside breakout attempt this morning, but it is December and everybody loves a Santa Claus rally.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011


So who snitched early?  It was obvious yesterday that there was a Fed move coming,, I went with QE but this is a global liquity move by everybody,;_ylt=ApSr9t4Hecun35kk69nrqj.iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQzM2l1NWh2BG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdHJvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwNiMThjMDIzYi1lOTRiLTMxOTctYTg1NC03Nzc5YTE2MWE4NDgEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDZjEyZGRiODQtMWI3OC0xMWUxLWFhNDYtMGZmZGQwOTY5ZmM4;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3.  Odd part is how people view things.  This happens and markets jump hysterically high but what caused that many countries to agree to a move together?  Had to have been bad.  Basically this cements the idea government will not let the stock market go down past a point.  So play that accordingly.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

QE 3 The Return

Stocks up on light volume, treasury's don't move, gold up, oil up.  Last time it looked like this it was QE or Twist or whatevrr new idea the Fed tries this time.

Missed That

Looks like I was wrong,  I still cannot believe it will stay like this since the cuts were designed to be mutually destructive.  1.5 trillion on a annual GDP of 15 is going to make a dent and if the unemployment and tax cuts are allowed to expire in a month that's an instant -%1 GDP cut too.

Monday, November 21, 2011


And We're Back

Super Committee day.  Rumor is Congress doesn't get a spending cut plan passed so the automatic cuts no one wants start.  I feel there'll be some sort of last second saving dramatic move and everything will be OK again for 5 minutes.  That's just my thought since the public outcry should be massive if Congress fails at this.  Occupy Congress should start.  Either way it should be interesting to see what the Fed does since their move has been liquidity and cash everywhere, 0 interest rate, QE++, etc, and now congress is going to remove a trillion in spending.  Fight time.

Thursday, November 10, 2011


I'm schizophrenic and so am I, What About Bob.  Oil just keeps going up?  Golds down?  Stocks rebound hard from yesterday?  Not sure any of this makes sense are people betting on deflation, inflation, Euro collapse?  We're down to %100 driven by Government headlines nothing else matters right now and since politicians are less rational then the manic depressive market I'm out.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

2007 Again

So MF Global is gone, Greece is now past bankrupt and on to stay in the Euro or not and Italy looks like it's losing as it's 10 year bond yield went past %6,  Greek one year now into the %200+.  The difference is this time unemployment is at %9 not %5 and we have inflation instead of deflation, and the Fed rate is already basically 0, so what's the next move?  Public works, money drops?  Feds seems out of moves so Congres might start trying but with the Super Committee to cut budgets who know, and really who names this stuff?  Super really.


Initial unemployment claims do their standard 4k revision up so its always going down week after week, but some how never really goes anywhere.
I'm waiting for that initial market pop up after the ECB rate cut to fizzle soon.

Monday, October 31, 2011

Even NPR

Even the Planet Money team on NPR had a segment on this morning asking how can the EFSF use money from Ireland, Greece and Italy to bailout Ireland, Greece, and Italy.  When NPR is making fun of you you're in trouble.

Friday, October 28, 2011

It's Cool Now

So Greek bonds will only take a %50 loss.  And the world equity markets celebrate.  If only someone told Italy's debt market.  It's 10 year is still at %6 and if you look further out on Greek's curve their bonds that mature later aren't as happy either.  Meaning they think this is a short fix.  It's like one brankrupt roomate borrowing from the broke one to pay this months rent.  Then next month bankrupt is still bankrupt and broke is now bankrupt too.  But I guess the EU has made it clear they'll keep giving out money so no one fails or everyone goes down.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Tuesday, October 25, 2011


Oil seems to have decoupled from stocks as it's up another %3 today even as stocks move down.  Have to find out what's causing that.

Greek bonds yields just keep moving as they passed %187.  Italy is stuck just under %6 as the ECB cannot really let someone that big get out of control.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Follow the Euro

So we've gone to Greek bond holders will take a x % haircut but everybodies ok with that now since there's the EFSF to bailout and banks that need it.  So they're stealing the US playbook banks cannot lose.  So Euro goes high all stocks go higher Europe and US and that also means Oil price too.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Mr. Bond

Plus side Greek bonds actually went up in value, granted they're still at a %180 yield, bad Italy ten year is moving towards %6.  And in normal land unemployment revised last weeks number up the normal 4 to 5k.  Europe bonds say default, press says it's ok.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Parabolic Bonds

Goldman earnings are in the red for the second time since its IPO.  Greek bond yield have gone parabolic up to %180.  So bond market's saying Greek default.  Now is just will that be contained or spread?  Looks like that 1220 area for the S&P held so down we go.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Wednesday start

Greek bonds lose value every day, yield on the one year is nearing %160.  The AIG look alike goes to Italy where it's bond yield refuses to go down too.  But with this people are flying out of US Tresuries, 10 year yields from 1.71 on Sept. 22 to 2.2 today, and all that money is going to stocks and Oil.  Where this rally stops I'm not sure.  As the Yahoo headline says, "Stocks Rise on Hopes for Slovakia Deal on Rescue."  If the US market is moving based on Slovakia we're already in trouble.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Today Meant?

Facts Greek bonds go to all time high. while the equity markets move up 3%.  So options.

1.  Bond market is wrong and Greece is fine.
2.  Greece will default, but because ECB will bail out all the banks everything will be ok.
3.  99% of people have never seen a Greek Bond chart and don't understand that yield going up = bad, so they blindly buy.
4.  Europe can implode and not effect the US markets.

Remember when everybody though the housing market wouldn't hurt anything else, or that Lehman collapse wouldn't effect anything else.  I'm trying to remember what happened next?


Everybodies up as Europe saves, nationalized, a couple banks.  And with that Greek bond yields break into new highs.  So ECB is going to let Greece fail but make sure none of the banks fail because of it?  We're now way passed moral hazzard.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Europe Being US.

So 2008 in the US went save Bear, let Lehman go down, which was bad, but the real problem was it was going to take AIG with it.  So now we have 2011 Europe Dexia is Bear, Greece is Lehman, and who's AIG?  It's getting that 2008 vibe again.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Watch the Bonds

S&P had a %4 percent run from the bottom to the top yesterday as Greek bailout rumor #137 came out.  Quick check of Greek bonds yields, up to %139.  Yield up price of bond goes down.  Equities seem to ignore the bond market which is not a good idea.  So will one of these rumors be true or will European leaders just go NBA lockout style were everyone loses.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

S&P Support

We're dancing around that S&P 1080 range,  Greek bond yields are moving up but still a little under their all time high for now.  On the plus side commodities are falling and pump prices should keep going down as oil price is down to $75.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Bankrupcy Watch Day

American Airlines

Bank of America

S&P Support

Looks like we might have lost that 1120 S&P line as Greek default is back on the front burner.  Even though the bonds have been pricing in a 50% plus haircut forever.  Equities are still behind the curve.  Next S&P support is around 1080.

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Analogy of the day

Stock market's like playing poker with somebody who's never played before.  You never know if they'll go all in with a pair of 4's.


Thursday, September 29, 2011


Unemployment initial claims shot way down by 37k and last weeks number got revised up 5k.  So the standard's been 9k move 3k revision so 37k move next week we'll see it revised up 11k?  Unemployment better, GDP estimate better, but what matters is Greek and Italian bond yields are actually failing on Germany's vote to fund a bailout package.  So I'd be looking for an upward move for the next 2 days.  But Greek one year bonds are still pricing in a %50+ haircut.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Tuesday Cap

S&P ran up to the R2 line and then sold straight off.  Theory of the first half of today was another Greece bailout plan/planning, this makes what the 10th maybe?  But today's ending doesn't look like confidence on the bulls part.  And like everything else in the last couple days Greek Bonds aren't following the equities higher, so I wouldn't be real secure if I was on the long side of stocks.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Analogy of the Day

Stock market's like a party, everybody shows up at their own time, but everybody leaves at the same time.

Yahoo Headline Fun

Yahoo headline "Stocks jump on hopes for a Europe fix; Dow up 272"
Funny part is Greek bonds which are the thing that "got fixed" are still going down, so I'm not sure where this fix is really, and everybody seemed to miss this headline Home-buying season the worst in at least 50 years.  I'm not that smart but that seems bad.

Monday Morning

We had another defense of the 1120 range on the S&P.  That's the current line in the sand for the bottom. But I'm not betting on prices going up either.  How's that for definative?

Conspiracy Corner

And now the margin increase.

Thursday, September 22, 2011


Oil's leading the way down as it lost 6% as of this.  That right there is the best stimulus we can get cheaper energy.  Saving directly to the people.  In an odd turn Gold is falling with the rest when normally its been a safe haven play when markets drop.  As bad as it looks here European markets closed down more then %4, but the Greek one year stayed flat for at least today. 

We're a couple points north of the August S&P lows if that doesn't hold then we've got a ways to drop.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Operation Twist

Well nobody liked the Fed's move.  S&P lost 40 points and is dropping more overnight, Oil dropped 2 dollars.  Hopefully everybody waited to refinance their mortgages as the 10 year and with that mortgage rates just keep falling.

And across the pond. Greek Bonds were still up and so were Italian Bonds.  Not looking like anythings fixed over there.  Markets still pricing in Greek default of some type.

So all and all market looking like it going to keep going down.  Nasdaq hasn't been dropping like the Dow and S&P I'd expect that that change soon.  S&P August low of 1120 range is looking like a next stop.

Sit on hands Morning.

I wouldn't expect anything until after the Fed announcement later today.  What they do is anyone's guess.  Republicans sent a letter saying basically stop. 

With that Greek and Italian bond yields still moving higher.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011


Greek one year bond yield is still playing in the 130% range, but US stocks are snap changed focused on the Fed meeting hoping for something I'm not sure what?  With inflation up I'm not sure the Fed has any room to play.  They should do the August move and just say "We'll do it next time". Word of the day Stagflation.

Monday, September 19, 2011


How'd Dell do after Micheal Dell left?  How'd the Bull's do when Jordan retired?  How's the Colts doing without Mannings?

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Only Thing That Matters.

Greek One Year Bond

Last week CPI, inflation, was running at the high limit of the stated Fed's acceptable range, NY and Philly numbers are showing manufacturing contraction, and unemployment's moving up, but Greece was going to get bailed out so everything's OK.  I don't expect that idea to change any this week so the Greek bond chart moves everything else right now.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Weekly Cap

The stock markets are loving this central bank we'll save everybody move announced yesterday.  S&P is up from 1150 to 1210 as of now and the European markets have moved more then that this week.  This is all on the idea that Greek default got taken off the table and with that European banks failures as well.  And yes Greek bonds have gone up in price but a one year Greek bond yield is still over 100%.  So for those who don't speak bond, the easy math is if it's yield is 100% for one year it means a $1000 bond is selling for $500.  Is that better then last weeks $400, yes.  Does that still mean the bond market thinks Greece can only pay half its debt back this year, yes.  Its got this 08 vibe were housing was collapsing but stocks kept going up and then explosion.  If people saw a crisis coming there wouldn't be one because they'd adjust before it happend.

Weekly Cap

The stock markets are loving this central bank we'll save everybody move announced yesterday.  S&P is up from 1150 to 1210 as of now and the European markets have moved more then that this week.  This is all on the idea that Greek default got taken off the table and with that European banks failures as well.  And yes Greek bonds have gone up in price but a one year Greek bond yield is still over 100%.  So for those who don't speak bond, the easy math is if it's yield is 100% for one year it means a $1000 bond is selling for $500.  Is that better then last weeks $400, yes.  Does that still mean the bond market thinks Greece can only pay half its debt back this year, yes.  Its got this 08 vibe were housing was collapsing but stocks kept going up and then explosion.  If people saw a crisis coming there wouldn't be one because they'd adjust before it happend.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Conspiracy Corner

It's already started.

Genius in cartoons

To honor Jeff.


Another week another upward revision to last weeks initial claims number.  But that doesn't matter because stocks are happy Greece is saved.  Somwhow the Greek bond didn't get the message, which is strange since this is suppose to fix the Greek debt market.  Once againg Bond market or stocks who's right?

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Oil Price

Had you been watching oil prices you might have caught the last 2 day run up early.  Oil price being the line above the S&P.

Conspiracy Corner

Will Gold keeps going up?  Better question will Gold be allowed to go up?  Right now Gold price is functioning like a currency but it's not a medium of exchange.  If the exchange part starts to happen ie. you can use gold as colateral at banks then watch out.  Limits on physical Gold will be enforced hard, margin will be raised on GC Futures, and position limits.  Basically the government needs to control the currency and when the market tries to change that the rules get changed.  Silver started to get out of control in May and margin limits went up on SI futures and you can see what happend.

Friday, September 9, 2011


European Central Bank board member retires?  Yen takes a drive off a cliff vs the dollar.  Dows off 300+ points.  10 Year is down in the 1.9 area.  There's rumors of a weekend Greek default but there has been for almost a year now but feels like something is happening just not sure what.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Where's the money going?

Where's the money going.

As you can see S&P, ES futures and Oil Price, CL futures are basically the same.  Which makes perfect sense because it's not like oil is an input cost to make and move things, and it's not like we import that much oil from other counties.  This is where the smiley face goes.

S&P with the 10 Year Bond, ZN futures contract.  Bonds prices are staying high even as the market moves up.
Gold price still also staying high.

So basically nothings changed bonds and gold are still being bought even when the S&P temporarily moves up based on whatever Europe said today.  Right or wrong Oil's the new S&P and Gold's the new dollar.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Equities Behind The Curve?

As of writing, 10 Year bond yield has fallen below %2 to an all time low.  All time low as in below 2009 world is ending low.  Gold is at 1900 and CDS spreads in Europe only get bigger.  But stocks seem to be the last to get it so are they just the one market that's right or just behind the curve everyone else set?  My bets on the latter.

Monday, September 5, 2011

Market Closed

Labor Day and the markets closed, or?  The market is not really a useful word all the time because right now yes the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE, NASDAQ are closed, so there's no stock trading.  But, as of this posting the Dow futures are down 250+ points because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and is still "open" and futures are trading.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Why the Fed matters.

See if you can pick where the Fed press conference was on this 5 day chart of the S&P?  Soon as we start going up volume drys up.

Before the Fed had to actually do QE and QE2 to make the market move, now they just hint at it and we get the same effect.  Here's the fun part no ones seems to talk about.  QE3 what's the cost?  See if you can spot where of this 5 day chart of the UUP, dollar index etf, the Fed conference was?  So are stocks really going up or is the dollar going down and since stocks are bought in dollars the price is just adjusting for a dollar that's value is declining.

Dollar goes down guess what goes up.  Everything else.  Here's the oil chart.

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Coming Week

Everything in my mind says sell except the price action.  Right now the Dow Futures are up 60 points after Friday's insane move up.  Housing bad, Unemployment bad, GDP going down, etc S&P goes up.  But you cannot fix stupid, so I'm not a seller yet but if the upward momentum waives it's time to leave the party.

Friday, August 26, 2011


So GDP estimate's continue to drop, we're down to 1%.  And now the Nasdaq is up 2% today.  I'd love to hear why?

Fed Friday

Well Bernanke didn't say QE 3 and down we go but its not a panic or at least yet.  Maybe because they did use the carrot out there that if things do turn bad they can jump in later.  So we're still bad news is good news and good news is great news.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Morning Thoughts

Just like before  today's initial unemployment number for last week was revised up.

Fun fact Apple accounts for about 15% of the QQQQ.  How well did Microsoft do when Gates left?

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Morning Trade

And we're back to my favorite mind set good news is good news and bad news means the Fed will have to save us, so that's good news too.  Basically everything goes up.  Looks like my thought that nothing would happen was wrong.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011


On July 20, 2010
USO - 34.82
Oil - 77.54 - or settlement of front month CL futures contract at that time

July 20 2011
USO - 38.40
Oil - 97.80

USO - 10%
Oil - 26%


Today is one of those that just makes me mad.  Nasdaq was up 4% at one point.  So there must have been some change in the world and that made stocks cheap.  Lets see

Housing -

Europe -

Bonds -

US Banks -

But don't worry the Fed will fix everything so up we go I mean look at the track record it's been awesome.

Here's my thought.  The current GDP was at 1.3 last time the number was put out, since then the NY, Philly, and Richmond Fed numbers have been under estimates by a factor of 10ish so if consensuses is GDP down .2 or so we may get a 0 or negative print next time.

Morning Trade

These morning rallies have been good spots to sell for the last 2 days, can we make it 3?

Monday, August 22, 2011

Fed Friday

It's all about Jackson Hole now.  The Fed meeting this week and the press conference on Friday will basically define the future.  The market seems to be betting on QE3 of some type, more treasury buying or something new, maybe we'll just start paying taxes directly to Citi cut out the middle man.  I think it can go a couple different ways.

1.  New "spending" is not really politically feasible right now as congress barely got the debt ceiling through, so I'm doubting they let the Fed increase it's balance sheet at all.  So Friday comes and the Fed does nothing and the market falls off a cliff and then the next day congress acts to save the day because no one gets reelected when the market crashes.  Basically the same thing that happened with TARP where congress votes no Dow drops 700 points and then the next day it gets voted through.

2.  Fed just does it anyway and congress goes crazy, but the market fly's up and so everybody just lets it go because people do get reelected when the market soars.

So basically I don't see any one making any real big moves until Friday, assuming a European bank doesn't collapse by then.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Morning Thoughts

So right now the 10 Year Treasury is down to 09 world is ending levels.  Last time it was this close to 2.00% the S&P was below 700.  So who's right, bond market or stock market?

Wednesday, August 17, 2011


Hooray inflation's back just like the Fed wanted.  Business school 101 inflation goes up stocks go up.  Wait what?

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Conspiracy Corner

And now it's time for conspiracy corner. (Cue Mr. Rogers' style music)

 So the one world government idea took a step forward today, EU Government.  Creating the Euro involved having every country abide by the same monetary policy with the European Central Bank, but every country had it's own fiscal policy.  So, countries could do whatever they wanted with their budgets, taxes, bond, etc.  There were constraints but obviously those didn't stop anybody.  It was inevitable that some day one country would cause trouble and what then?
That's where it's at now, does Greece and Italy get booted from the Euro, does everybody leave the Euro for the old one country one currency, or do they move towards a single EU governement?  Looks like they're choosing one EU country and one step closer to one world government or so the idea goes.  I'm not sure putting France and German in one country is a good idea or one that would last that long, but we should invade Canada just in case.

Monday, August 15, 2011

Monday Recap

Thursday's post seems to have been close enough,, but with the NY Fed Manufacturing numbers from Monday morning the S&P is looking expensive here at 1200.  Might be time to lighten up again.

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Mortgage Rates

With the 10 year Treasury yield down in the two and a quarter range mortgage rates have falling to a crazy low, 30 year fixed is well below four and half.  Great time to refinance for everybody the interesting situation that arises is now the US has millions of mortgages locked in at say 4.5% for thirty years, or more appropriately said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have all these loans on the books, since they own 90% of the mortgages in America.  Now the interesting part is if the Fed ever starts to raise interest rates in the future what does Fannie do with the loans they have that are paying less then say the 10 year bond?  Right now everything is fine but what happens if we ever need to go back to a more "normal" rate.  Fannie will have a book full of loans paying 4.5% in a 5% world.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Love that oil price

See if you can spot where the Fed annocment was on the chart of oil price this week.

Afternoon trade

If we get above Tuesday's high of 1170 on the S&P there will probably be a run to 1200.  If we cannot break that then call 1100 to 1170 the new range and we'll bounce around there for a while.  As with the last couple days it's all in the last hour.  If it gets near 1170 and then pauses and starts to come down that might be a good place to sell out today.  Retail sales tomorrow morning can really set the direction for Friday.


The weekly initial unemployment numbers came out and were under 400k USA USA.  But wait last week's number got revised up?  Normally when you have an estimate you error on the high side and the low side randomly not always low and then revise later like we get every week with this job loss number.  You have to go back to March 3rd of this year to find a time when the previous week's number wasn't reset up later.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Really? Apple?

So apparently it's offical now the world is ending.

Exhibit A

Exhibit B

Good to know that oil is no longer that important.  See we're moving to a greener tomorrow and didn't even know it, but it won't matter since I'm pretty sure a 3d Harold and Kumar is the Third Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

Afternoon wrap up

It's all in the last hour just like yesterday.  Rest of the day was irrelevant.

Here's a fun fact

This has to be the best named IPhone app company out there.

Ron Paul Morning

Always fun when Ron Paul is on CNBC in the morning.  Here is the clip of him asking Bernanke "what is money".
Ron Paul what is money question.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Really Apple

And this is why I started this, so I can say, Apple seriously the biggest company in the world?  They make cell phones and really big cell phones and maybe an overpriced laptop somewhere too.

(AppleTV is at least useful)

Fed Tuesday

Market collapses Monday and then overnight China CPI comes in a little hot at 6.5 and the S&P futures drop below 1080, Oil falls 5 dollars to 75 as everyone assumes this means China will have to pull liquidity out again.  Tuesday starts off up a little on an oversold style bounce for basically all "risk" assets and proceeds to play wait for the Fed at 2:15.  Fed statement comes out and down we go then straight up 70 points in an hour?  Wait, what.  Fed tells you they're not going to raise rates for 2 years hooray.  Or put another way, the US economy won't see any growth for at least 2 more years booo.  That equals bad in my world not 70 points straight up good, but never underestimate the markets ability to misunderstand Fed policy decisions.

You can see the drop after the Fed statement then 2:40 straight up into the close.


The point of this is to give a forum to basically piss and moan about things in the market that just don't seem right, and no time like the present to start posting.  This has been a phenomenal week to start with as the Dow was down 600 points, for no good reason on Monday and then back up 400 points the next day on what should be terrible news.