Even the Planet Money team on NPR had a segment on this morning asking how can the EFSF use money from Ireland, Greece and Italy to bailout Ireland, Greece, and Italy. When NPR is making fun of you you're in trouble.
Friday, October 28, 2011
So Greek bonds will only take a %50 loss. And the world equity markets celebrate. If only someone told Italy's debt market. It's 10 year is still at %6 and if you look further out on Greek's curve their bonds that mature later aren't as happy either. Meaning they think this is a short fix. It's like one brankrupt roomate borrowing from the broke one to pay this months rent. Then next month bankrupt is still bankrupt and broke is now bankrupt too. But I guess the EU has made it clear they'll keep giving out money so no one fails or everyone goes down.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Oil seems to have decoupled from stocks as it's up another %3 today even as stocks move down. Have to find out what's causing that.
Greek bonds yields just keep moving as they passed %187. Italy is stuck just under %6 as the ECB cannot really let someone that big get out of control.
Monday, October 24, 2011
So we've gone to Greek bond holders will take a x % haircut but everybodies ok with that now since there's the EFSF to bailout and banks that need it. So they're stealing the US playbook banks cannot lose. So Euro goes high all stocks go higher Europe and US and that also means Oil price too.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Greek bonds lose value every day, yield on the one year is nearing %160. The AIG look alike goes to Italy where it's bond yield refuses to go down too. But with this people are flying out of US Tresuries, 10 year yields from 1.71 on Sept. 22 to 2.2 today, and all that money is going to stocks and Oil. Where this rally stops I'm not sure. As the Yahoo headline says, "Stocks Rise on Hopes for Slovakia Deal on Rescue." If the US market is moving based on Slovakia we're already in trouble.
Monday, October 10, 2011
1. Bond market is wrong and Greece is fine.
2. Greece will default, but because ECB will bail out all the banks everything will be ok.
3. 99% of people have never seen a Greek Bond chart and don't understand that yield going up = bad, so they blindly buy.
4. Europe can implode and not effect the US markets.
Remember when everybody though the housing market wouldn't hurt anything else, or that Lehman collapse wouldn't effect anything else. I'm trying to remember what happened next?
Sunday, October 9, 2011
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
S&P had a %4 percent run from the bottom to the top yesterday as Greek bailout rumor #137 came out. Quick check of Greek bonds yields, up to %139. Yield up price of bond goes down. Equities seem to ignore the bond market which is not a good idea. So will one of these rumors be true or will European leaders just go NBA lockout style were everyone loses.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
We're dancing around that S&P 1080 range, http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/10/s-support.html. Greek bond yields are moving up but still a little under their all time high for now. On the plus side commodities are falling and pump prices should keep going down as oil price is down to $75.