Monday, October 31, 2011

Even NPR

Even the Planet Money team on NPR had a segment on this morning asking how can the EFSF use money from Ireland, Greece and Italy to bailout Ireland, Greece, and Italy.  When NPR is making fun of you you're in trouble.

Friday, October 28, 2011

It's Cool Now

So Greek bonds will only take a %50 loss.  And the world equity markets celebrate.  If only someone told Italy's debt market.  It's 10 year is still at %6 and if you look further out on Greek's curve their bonds that mature later aren't as happy either.  Meaning they think this is a short fix.  It's like one brankrupt roomate borrowing from the broke one to pay this months rent.  Then next month bankrupt is still bankrupt and broke is now bankrupt too.  But I guess the EU has made it clear they'll keep giving out money so no one fails or everyone goes down.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Tuesday, October 25, 2011


Oil seems to have decoupled from stocks as it's up another %3 today even as stocks move down.  Have to find out what's causing that.

Greek bonds yields just keep moving as they passed %187.  Italy is stuck just under %6 as the ECB cannot really let someone that big get out of control.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Follow the Euro

So we've gone to Greek bond holders will take a x % haircut but everybodies ok with that now since there's the EFSF to bailout and banks that need it.  So they're stealing the US playbook banks cannot lose.  So Euro goes high all stocks go higher Europe and US and that also means Oil price too.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Mr. Bond

Plus side Greek bonds actually went up in value, granted they're still at a %180 yield, bad Italy ten year is moving towards %6.  And in normal land unemployment revised last weeks number up the normal 4 to 5k.  Europe bonds say default, press says it's ok.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Parabolic Bonds

Goldman earnings are in the red for the second time since its IPO.  Greek bond yield have gone parabolic up to %180.  So bond market's saying Greek default.  Now is just will that be contained or spread?  Looks like that 1220 area for the S&P held so down we go.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Wednesday start

Greek bonds lose value every day, yield on the one year is nearing %160.  The AIG look alike goes to Italy where it's bond yield refuses to go down too.  But with this people are flying out of US Tresuries, 10 year yields from 1.71 on Sept. 22 to 2.2 today, and all that money is going to stocks and Oil.  Where this rally stops I'm not sure.  As the Yahoo headline says, "Stocks Rise on Hopes for Slovakia Deal on Rescue."  If the US market is moving based on Slovakia we're already in trouble.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Today Meant?

Facts Greek bonds go to all time high. while the equity markets move up 3%.  So options.

1.  Bond market is wrong and Greece is fine.
2.  Greece will default, but because ECB will bail out all the banks everything will be ok.
3.  99% of people have never seen a Greek Bond chart and don't understand that yield going up = bad, so they blindly buy.
4.  Europe can implode and not effect the US markets.

Remember when everybody though the housing market wouldn't hurt anything else, or that Lehman collapse wouldn't effect anything else.  I'm trying to remember what happened next?


Everybodies up as Europe saves, nationalized, a couple banks.  And with that Greek bond yields break into new highs.  So ECB is going to let Greece fail but make sure none of the banks fail because of it?  We're now way passed moral hazzard.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Europe Being US.

So 2008 in the US went save Bear, let Lehman go down, which was bad, but the real problem was it was going to take AIG with it.  So now we have 2011 Europe Dexia is Bear, Greece is Lehman, and who's AIG?  It's getting that 2008 vibe again.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Watch the Bonds

S&P had a %4 percent run from the bottom to the top yesterday as Greek bailout rumor #137 came out.  Quick check of Greek bonds yields, up to %139.  Yield up price of bond goes down.  Equities seem to ignore the bond market which is not a good idea.  So will one of these rumors be true or will European leaders just go NBA lockout style were everyone loses.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

S&P Support

We're dancing around that S&P 1080 range,  Greek bond yields are moving up but still a little under their all time high for now.  On the plus side commodities are falling and pump prices should keep going down as oil price is down to $75.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Bankrupcy Watch Day

American Airlines

Bank of America

S&P Support

Looks like we might have lost that 1120 S&P line as Greek default is back on the front burner.  Even though the bonds have been pricing in a 50% plus haircut forever.  Equities are still behind the curve.  Next S&P support is around 1080.

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Analogy of the day

Stock market's like playing poker with somebody who's never played before.  You never know if they'll go all in with a pair of 4's.