Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Before the Fed had to actually do QE and QE2 to make the market move, now they just hint at it and we get the same effect. Here's the fun part no ones seems to talk about. QE3 what's the cost? See if you can spot where of this 5 day chart of the UUP, dollar index etf, the Fed conference was? So are stocks really going up or is the dollar going down and since stocks are bought in dollars the price is just adjusting for a dollar that's value is declining.
Dollar goes down guess what goes up. Everything else. Here's the oil chart.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Friday, August 26, 2011
Well Bernanke didn't say QE 3 and down we go but its not a panic or at least yet. Maybe because they did use the carrot out there that if things do turn bad they can jump in later. So we're still bad news is good news and good news is great news.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Just like before http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/08/unemployment.html. today's initial unemployment number for last week was revised up.
Fun fact Apple accounts for about 15% of the QQQQ. How well did Microsoft do when Gates left?
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
And we're back to my favorite mind set good news is good news and bad news means the Fed will have to save us, so that's good news too. Basically everything goes up. Looks like my thought that nothing would happen was wrong. http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/08/fed-friday.html
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Housing - http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Newhome-sales-fall-2011-could-apf-3845011766.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Europe - http://pragcap.com/cds-market-to-euro-banks-this-is-worse-than-2008
Bonds - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/4-week-bill-auction-closs-0000-bill-rates-now-negative-through-november
US Banks - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-america-scrambles-defend-itself-henry-blodgets-allegations-it-massively-undercapitalized
But don't worry the Fed will fix everything so up we go I mean look at the track record it's been awesome.
Here's my thought. The current GDP was at 1.3 last time the number was put out, since then the NY, Philly, and Richmond Fed numbers have been under estimates by a factor of 10ish so if consensuses is GDP down .2 or so we may get a 0 or negative print next time.
Monday, August 22, 2011
1. New "spending" is not really politically feasible right now as congress barely got the debt ceiling through, so I'm doubting they let the Fed increase it's balance sheet at all. So Friday comes and the Fed does nothing and the market falls off a cliff and then the next day congress acts to save the day because no one gets reelected when the market crashes. Basically the same thing that happened with TARP where congress votes no Dow drops 700 points and then the next day it gets voted through.
2. Fed just does it anyway and congress goes crazy, but the market fly's up and so everybody just lets it go because people do get reelected when the market soars.
So basically I don't see any one making any real big moves until Friday, assuming a European bank doesn't collapse by then.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
So the one world government idea took a step forward today, EU Government. Creating the Euro involved having every country abide by the same monetary policy with the European Central Bank, but every country had it's own fiscal policy. So, countries could do whatever they wanted with their budgets, taxes, bond, etc. There were constraints but obviously those didn't stop anybody. It was inevitable that some day one country would cause trouble and what then?
That's where it's at now, does Greece and Italy get booted from the Euro, does everybody leave the Euro for the old one country one currency, or do they move towards a single EU governement? Looks like they're choosing one EU country and one step closer to one world government or so the idea goes. I'm not sure putting France and German in one country is a good idea or one that would last that long, but we should invade Canada just in case.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Thursday, August 11, 2011
If we get above Tuesday's high of 1170 on the S&P there will probably be a run to 1200. If we cannot break that then call 1100 to 1170 the new range and we'll bounce around there for a while. As with the last couple days it's all in the last hour. If it gets near 1170 and then pauses and starts to come down that might be a good place to sell out today. Retail sales tomorrow morning can really set the direction for Friday.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
So apparently it's offical now the world is ending.
Good to know that oil is no longer that important. See we're moving to a greener tomorrow and didn't even know it, but it won't matter since I'm pretty sure a 3d Harold and Kumar is the Third Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
And this is why I started this, so I can say, Apple seriously the biggest company in the world? They make cell phones and really big cell phones and maybe an overpriced laptop somewhere too.
(AppleTV is at least useful)
You can see the drop after the Fed statement then 2:40 straight up into the close.