Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Back to the year high

As the S&P sits as the top the of the channel it been bouncing in for 2 months the question is does it break up to the 1420 year high or stay in the current channel and start dropping. If today's gains hold and don't get slash in the last 5 minutes 1420's the bet.

Stocks are dead?


Round the all time high on the S&P to 1520.  We are less then 8% from that at 1400.  Yes that sounds like a dead market people are running from?  Seriously?  So if this is dead what's good look like, up 25% a every year?  It seems the expectations are way off of reality.

Friday, August 3, 2012

NFP Friday

So the new question is does the 163k print stop QE or not?

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Corn away

So I'm definitely not a farming expert, but Sunday I watched a farmer mow down his drought killed corn field.  That's the first time I've ever seen a field just mowed down so late in the summer.  I do know that corn prices have shot up and that more then half the food out there uses some corn based something, high fructose corn syrup, feed for animals, etc.  So basically it's how bad does this push inflation and does the Fed care.  It may not effect the core CPI and we'll have QE3 like he market seems to expect.  Real fun will be if the ethanol requirement for gasoline gets removed and what that will do to gas prices.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Europe still driving the car

Italian 10 year is back over 6.5%.  I know Spain is the big watch point right now and it looks bad but Italy is the next problem that's twice as big.  US Treasuries are flirting with all time highs while equities are still near the top for the year?

Monday, June 25, 2012

Italian Bonds

Italian 10 Year

Well it's not as bad as 6 months ago, but not that much better.  Greece, Spain savable.  Italy?

Friday, June 22, 2012

Inflation key

So the Philly Fed number was way down, unemployment's staying up, and basically the economy looks weak again.  The Fed keeps saying it won't move until inflation isn't even close to an issue and with Oil prices down to 78 a barrel that might happen sooner then later.

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Fed rally

I guess that's why he's the chairman.
Hey if things go bad don't worry we got this.  No we don't need to do anything now it's cool, but if it's uncool later we're still good cause I told you we got this.
And everyone bought it to the tune of 300+ Dow points.

Friday, June 1, 2012

10 Year Yield < 1.5

Not really sure what to say about this.

NFP Friday

So did that jobs number just kick off QE(n)?  Oil prices have slid far enough down to quell inflation fears and with the unemployment rate going up, now feels like everything's in place for some action.  Plus people are going to start begging for intervention if the market keeps going down.  It's a fun game of what's happening in the real economy and then what will central banks do.  You need to know both now.

Friday, May 18, 2012


Here's the requisite Facebook IPO acknowledgement since no one in the world can not talk about it.

Thursday, May 17, 2012


The interesting thing to me is the fear a couple years ago was Greece's problems would spread to Ireland and Portugal and then Spain and then Italy and then that would take the whole thing apart.  Isn't that's what's happening right now?  It's just in slow motion compared to the original idea that everything would unravel in months.  The ECB's different extend it programs changed the timeline but not the problem.  Fear seems to be tied more to velocity then actually outcomes.  Not sure if this is people having the time to hope for the best or more everyone's had time to process and accept the outcome instead of the panic high speed movement caused panic.  Either way we're still headed in the same direction people just don't seem as scared.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Night and Day

Almost a full 1% move in the first hour straight up.  This seems to be the new theme crash down overnight rally hard during the day.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012


Panic buying is an interesting thing.  Panic selling is people afraid of losing money "that's theirs" so panic selling comes from a place of not wanting to lose what you have.  Makes sense.  Panic buying is completely different and happens when you want to do something but don't and then watch the train start to move without you.  You don't want to lose the opportunity, the chance.  Ones based on fear the other's based on greed. Both normally end up poorly.

? Morning

Well that was a pretty quick 12, ok now 15, point run up off the bottom for the S&P.  People are just buying regardless right now so time to step off and let that crazy go by.

Friday, May 4, 2012

NFP Friday

Unemployment report wasn't good and now the S&P is off about 10 points.  The more interesting thing to me is the move down in oil.  With the Fed dual mandate of full employment and price stability they've been saying we cannot do a lot to try and reduce unemployment with inflation at the high end of their acceptable range.  But with oil prices moving down that can open up the easing window, so we're in that weird land of bad news maybe good news for stocks.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

New month

So for the first time in a while the S&P was down for the last month.  Not by much but GDP growth got pulled down, unemployment is looking worse so its back to bad news = stimulus and that's good.  Why its good for stocks I don't know.  It really depends on what happens QE3, tax cuts, job initiative each one plays out differently.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Fed Genius

You have to love the Fed game.  Yesterday basically the statement is we're OK but if something changes we'll step in.  So everyone will act like there's a Fed move because of the implication but the Fed really doesn't  have to do anything.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Weak rally day

Here's something you don't see everyday.  Dow up over a 100 with the NASDAQ down.  That makes for a pretty weak rally.

Monday, April 23, 2012

The Spain Show

Europe is still running the show.  At one point this morning Spain's index was down 3% after the pmi numbers show higher contraction then expected.  So the S&P still just goes with fears and hopes from Europe.  So the original fear was Greece contagion, and its happening in a sense but giving the recent track record and statements I'd except a central bank move.  The real question is will it help?  With that, its tough to be long risk anything when the biggest economy, the whole EU, is shrinking.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Movement is back

Looks like movement is back as Europe problems are moving the S&P again.  Plus unemployment numbers are moving back to the 400k range.  We're back to 5 point 5 minute bars on the ES its hard to keep track.

Monday, March 26, 2012

Plunge Protection Team

Market goes down for one week and the Fed's back with another save the stock market QE3 press conference.  If anyone out there still is thinking about this with fundamentals or market analysis there's no need Fed doesn't want the market to go down.  Please note that the market is not the economy and I said save the market.

 See if you can pick out where the morning Bernanke speech was.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Unbiased Opinions

Love unbiased opinions.  That's like asking a used car salesman if you should buy a car, or asking a real estate agent is now a good time to buy a house.  The answer is going to not be no.  Since it NCAA Tourney time that's like a high school basketball star asking Tom Izzo or Bill Self which school should I go to.  Do you think Izzo's going to say you'd fit perfectly at Ohio State you should go there instead of Michigan State?

I do like the argument made also.  Basically buy stocks because bond's are going to suck.  Really that's the whole thought out idea bond will go down so you have to buy stocks?

Thursday, March 15, 2012

2008 Again

So we're back up to 2008 stock levels.  Everyone agrees now that back then we where all crazy for not seeing the bubble before it happened.  We all know now that the credit expansion and easy money was not sustainable and we'd never get into that situation again because it's so obvious, I mean we cann't even figure out how we missed it the first time.
So right now the stock markets back to that level we all know was a bubble in 08, so what's the justification now.  I love all the articles about people staying out of stocks and are still afraid.  What?  Everyone is buying, everyone.  That's why the prices are so high.  Price goes up because more people are buying then selling.  So the last time stocks got this high it was fueled by easy mortgage money now it's easy Fed money, so is that going to be different?

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Stress Test

So apparently everyone's real excited about the stress test results.

Analogy of the Day

Watching the stock market now is like watching a guy who keeps going "all in" with just a pair of 8's.  Yes it's a hand and maybe it worked once earlier, but what are the odds that it'll keep working all night.

Friday, March 9, 2012

NFP Friday

Jumped on the jobs report but that 1366 on the ES seems to be the magnet right now.  Oil is still high enough to do damage at 107   Basically it looks like we're losing a little upward momentum that's been there this whole year.

Greek away

I love watching the everything's ok in Europe media parade as Greek Bonds go higher.  Ya that's over 1000%.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Monday, February 27, 2012


Stocks up, Treasuries up, Vix up, wait what?  We've gone to question mark town.  I got nothing.

Friday, February 24, 2012


S&P is in a slow motion breakout from Tuesday's high.  Feeling like a headfake right now.

Oil Away

Oil up past 108 now, sweet $4 dollar gas again.  I'm sure everyone misses those days.  If that keeps going I just cannot see the headline inflation number allowing the Fed to do anything more.  So Oil price is the new thing everyone will pay myopic attention to for the next couple weeks.

Thursday, February 23, 2012


So at least the S&P and the 10 year stopped moving up together finally.  Looks like the slow melt up in stocks just keeps going.


If this is true the system's in trouble.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Worth a Thousand Words


Strong Side

Easy to see where the strength is today Dow down 75 points while the Nasdaq is up 5.  The power of Apple.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Closed Monday

For being a closed Monday everythings moving more then I'd expect.  Oil's up over 105.  That keeps going we'll see that CPI headline number jump quickly.  We might be turning from the oil up means demand is up, which means the economy is improving, to oil is an input cost to production and higher is bad.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Melt Up

Got that QE feel again just a slow melt up with basically no down.  The interesting part is that everything's up on what I can only think is inflation fears again?  QE2 was the Fed buying 600 billion in Treasuries with an average duration of 7 years.  So really the Fed swapped with the banks 600 billion in cash for 600 billion in bonds.  How is that inflationary?  No new money introduced 600 billion in assets and ended with 600 billion in assets, but everybody screamed hyperinflation so into stocks and commdities everyone went.  So a similar move while not inflationary is being view as such and so the cycle repeats.  But really the Fed doesn't have a choice now, if they pulled QE3 off the table the market would collapse.  So it seems like a must do for them since we've got the doctrine of market declines can not be allowed.  

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Opening range

Not even a 3 point range this morning on the S&P.  High to lows are getting smaller recently.  The money question is does this pause in upward momentum mean sideways or a top?  If you watch most of the action is overnight or basically everyones still waiting for Europe to either stabilize or explode.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Melt up

Initial claims for unemployment keep getting better but is it from job growth or are that many people just running over their 22 months and falling off the map?  With that the S&P keeps melting up.  This rate we can be back to the 07 super bubble level by May and the Nasdaq can get back to 00', pets.com worth 30 billion level, too.

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Analogy of the day

Stock market's like the BCS unfair, corrupt but there's took much money behind it now for wholesale change.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Unemployment rate

Here's the last couple times S&P was in the 1340ish range with unemployment rate.

Oct 06 %4.5
Apr 08 %5
Now %8.3

Not scientific but does the unemployment rate matter?


First thought with the NFP was, "hmm that's weird normally there's hiring for christmas then all those people are gone in January"?  Good old ZH to the explainationing http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-.  This might kill the Fed's inject money idea since unemployment is a big part of the inflation number.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012


S&P is about 15% from the 1550ish high in 07 and everybody has agreed that was a ridiculous super bubble, stupid, evil, etc.  But we're 15% under that and since in January the S&P was up 6% it might not take that long to get back there.  At the same time Treasuries are at an all time high and with Gold in the 1750 range and Oil just under a 100 it looks like no one can lose.  I guess central banks can save the world,  O except housing.  We're in the bad is good, low GDP doesn't mean no growth, it means the Fed will inject money and that's good for stocks.  Wait what?

Tuesday, January 24, 2012


ES, S&P E-Mini futures, with the ZN, 10 Treasury future.  Normally bonds go up stocks go down, or stocks go up and bonds go down.  So bonds and stocks up together?  I guess everybody was on the QE3 train, but in the last couple of days Treasuries are off so?  I'm with this guy Yield Disconnect.