Unemployment claims drop big, waiting for next week's revision up, and market jumps up. S&P finally got over the 200 day for literally a minute and then smacked right back down by ECB rumors. US markets are still run by Europe and waiting for this weekends answer.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
200 Day vs Santa
S&P ran up to the 200 day and then downgrade warnings on basically everybody in Europe and failed 200 day breakout attempt #1. Really it's just wait for the weekend and see for save Euro conference #140, there's as many of these as UFC fights. Chart wise we're looking like a failed upside breakout attempt this morning, but it is December and everybody loves a Santa Claus rally.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Intervention
So who snitched early? It was obvious yesterday that there was a Fed move coming, http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/11/qe-3-return.html, I went with QE but this is a global liquity move by everybody, http://finance.yahoo.com/news/central-banks-rescue-todays-action-162004495.html;_ylt=ApSr9t4Hecun35kk69nrqj.iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQzM2l1NWh2BG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdHJvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwNiMThjMDIzYi1lOTRiLTMxOTctYTg1NC03Nzc5YTE2MWE4NDgEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDZjEyZGRiODQtMWI3OC0xMWUxLWFhNDYtMGZmZGQwOTY5ZmM4;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3. Odd part is how people view things. This happens and markets jump hysterically high but what caused that many countries to agree to a move together? Had to have been bad. Basically this cements the idea government will not let the stock market go down past a point. So play that accordingly.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
QE 3 The Return
Stocks up on light volume, treasury's don't move, gold up, oil up. Last time it looked like this it was QE or Twist or whatevrr new idea the Fed tries this time.
Missed That
Looks like I was wrong, http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/11/and-were-back.html. I still cannot believe it will stay like this since the cuts were designed to be mutually destructive. 1.5 trillion on a annual GDP of 15 is going to make a dent and if the unemployment and tax cuts are allowed to expire in a month that's an instant -%1 GDP cut too.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Genius
And We're Back
Super Committee day. Rumor is Congress doesn't get a spending cut plan passed so the automatic cuts no one wants start. I feel there'll be some sort of last second saving dramatic move and everything will be OK again for 5 minutes. That's just my thought since the public outcry should be massive if Congress fails at this. Occupy Congress should start. Either way it should be interesting to see what the Fed does since their move has been liquidity and cash everywhere, 0 interest rate, QE++, etc, and now congress is going to remove a trillion in spending. Fight time.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Schizophrenic
I'm schizophrenic and so am I, What About Bob. Oil just keeps going up? Golds down? Stocks rebound hard from yesterday? Not sure any of this makes sense are people betting on deflation, inflation, Euro collapse? We're down to %100 driven by Government headlines nothing else matters right now and since politicians are less rational then the manic depressive market I'm out.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
2007 Again
So MF Global is gone, Greece is now past bankrupt and on to stay in the Euro or not and Italy looks like it's losing as it's 10 year bond yield went past %6, Greek one year now into the %200+. The difference is this time unemployment is at %9 not %5 and we have inflation instead of deflation, and the Fed rate is already basically 0, so what's the next move? Public works, money drops? Feds seems out of moves so Congres might start trying but with the Super Committee to cut budgets who know, and really who names this stuff? Super really.
Unemployment
Initial unemployment claims do their standard 4k revision up so its always going down week after week, but some how never really goes anywhere.
I'm waiting for that initial market pop up after the ECB rate cut to fizzle soon.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Even NPR
Even the Planet Money team on NPR had a segment on this morning asking how can the EFSF use money from Ireland, Greece and Italy to bailout Ireland, Greece, and Italy. When NPR is making fun of you you're in trouble.
Friday, October 28, 2011
It's Cool Now
So Greek bonds will only take a %50 loss. And the world equity markets celebrate. If only someone told Italy's debt market. It's 10 year is still at %6 and if you look further out on Greek's curve their bonds that mature later aren't as happy either. Meaning they think this is a short fix. It's like one brankrupt roomate borrowing from the broke one to pay this months rent. Then next month bankrupt is still bankrupt and broke is now bankrupt too. But I guess the EU has made it clear they'll keep giving out money so no one fails or everyone goes down.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
S&P Resistance
I'll go with this analysis, http://pragcap.com/the-megaphone-bottom. If you're taking the bear side today's a good start. Across the pond Greek bonds over %190. It's down to can they control the contagion or not?
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
WTI
Oil seems to have decoupled from stocks as it's up another %3 today even as stocks move down. Have to find out what's causing that.
Greek bonds yields just keep moving as they passed %187. Italy is stuck just under %6 as the ECB cannot really let someone that big get out of control.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Follow the Euro
So we've gone to Greek bond holders will take a x % haircut but everybodies ok with that now since there's the EFSF to bailout and banks that need it. So they're stealing the US playbook banks cannot lose. So Euro goes high all stocks go higher Europe and US and that also means Oil price too.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Mr. Bond
Plus side Greek bonds actually went up in value, granted they're still at a %180 yield, bad Italy ten year is moving towards %6. And in normal land unemployment revised last weeks number up the normal 4 to 5k. Europe bonds say default, press says it's ok.
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Parabolic Bonds
Goldman earnings are in the red for the second time since its IPO. Greek bond yield have gone parabolic up to %180. So bond market's saying Greek default. Now is just will that be contained or spread? Looks like that 1220 area for the S&P held so down we go.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Wednesday start
Greek bonds lose value every day, yield on the one year is nearing %160. The AIG look alike goes to Italy where it's bond yield refuses to go down too. But with this people are flying out of US Tresuries, 10 year yields from 1.71 on Sept. 22 to 2.2 today, and all that money is going to stocks and Oil. Where this rally stops I'm not sure. As the Yahoo headline says, "Stocks Rise on Hopes for Slovakia Deal on Rescue." If the US market is moving based on Slovakia we're already in trouble.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Today Meant?
1. Bond market is wrong and Greece is fine.
2. Greece will default, but because ECB will bail out all the banks everything will be ok.
3. 99% of people have never seen a Greek Bond chart and don't understand that yield going up = bad, so they blindly buy.
4. Europe can implode and not effect the US markets.
Remember when everybody though the housing market wouldn't hurt anything else, or that Lehman collapse wouldn't effect anything else. I'm trying to remember what happened next?
Nationalized
Everybodies up as Europe saves, nationalized, a couple banks. And with that Greek bond yields break into new highs. So ECB is going to let Greece fail but make sure none of the banks fail because of it? We're now way passed moral hazzard.
Sunday, October 9, 2011
Europe Being US.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Watch the Bonds
S&P had a %4 percent run from the bottom to the top yesterday as Greek bailout rumor #137 came out. Quick check of Greek bonds yields, up to %139. Yield up price of bond goes down. Equities seem to ignore the bond market which is not a good idea. So will one of these rumors be true or will European leaders just go NBA lockout style were everyone loses.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
S&P Support
We're dancing around that S&P 1080 range, http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/10/s-support.html. Greek bond yields are moving up but still a little under their all time high for now. On the plus side commodities are falling and pump prices should keep going down as oil price is down to $75.
Monday, October 3, 2011
S&P Support
Looks like we might have lost that 1120 S&P line as Greek default is back on the front burner. Even though the bonds have been pricing in a 50% plus haircut forever. Equities are still behind the curve. Next S&P support is around 1080.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Analogy of the day
Stock market's like playing poker with somebody who's never played before. You never know if they'll go all in with a pair of 4's.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Unemployment
Unemployment initial claims shot way down by 37k and last weeks number got revised up 5k. So the standard's been 9k move 3k revision so 37k move next week we'll see it revised up 11k? Unemployment better, GDP estimate better, but what matters is Greek and Italian bond yields are actually failing on Germany's vote to fund a bailout package. So I'd be looking for an upward move for the next 2 days. But Greek one year bonds are still pricing in a %50+ haircut.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Tuesday Cap
S&P ran up to the R2 line and then sold straight off. Theory of the first half of today was another Greece bailout plan/planning, this makes what the 10th maybe? But today's ending doesn't look like confidence on the bulls part. And like everything else in the last couple days Greek Bonds aren't following the equities higher, so I wouldn't be real secure if I was on the long side of stocks.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Analogy of the Day
Yahoo Headline Fun
Funny part is Greek bonds which are the thing that "got fixed" are still going down, so I'm not sure where this fix is really, and everybody seemed to miss this headline Home-buying season the worst in at least 50 years. I'm not that smart but that seems bad.
Monday Morning
We had another defense of the 1120 range on the S&P. http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/09/operation-twist.html. That's the current line in the sand for the bottom. But I'm not betting on prices going up either. How's that for definative?
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Ouch
Oil's leading the way down as it lost 6% as of this. That right there is the best stimulus we can get cheaper energy. Saving directly to the people. In an odd turn Gold is falling with the rest when normally its been a safe haven play when markets drop. As bad as it looks here European markets closed down more then %4, but the Greek one year stayed flat for at least today.
We're a couple points north of the August S&P lows if that doesn't hold then we've got a ways to drop.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Operation Twist
And across the pond. Greek Bonds were still up and so were Italian Bonds. Not looking like anythings fixed over there. Markets still pricing in Greek default of some type.
So all and all market looking like it going to keep going down. Nasdaq hasn't been dropping like the Dow and S&P I'd expect that that change soon. S&P August low of 1120 range is looking like a next stop.
Sit on hands Morning.
I wouldn't expect anything until after the Fed announcement later today. What they do is anyone's guess. Republicans sent a letter saying basically stop. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/did-republican-letter-bernanke-seal-deal-even-more-qe-jp-morgans-take
With that Greek and Italian bond yields still moving higher.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Stagflation
Greek one year bond yield is still playing in the 130% range, but US stocks are snap changed focused on the Fed meeting hoping for something I'm not sure what? With inflation up I'm not sure the Fed has any room to play. They should do the August move and just say "We'll do it next time". Word of the day Stagflation.
Monday, September 19, 2011
Apple
How'd Dell do after Micheal Dell left? How'd the Bull's do when Jordan retired? How's the Colts doing without Mannings?
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Only Thing That Matters.
Last week CPI, inflation, was running at the high limit of the stated Fed's acceptable range, NY and Philly numbers are showing manufacturing contraction, and unemployment's moving up, but Greece was going to get bailed out so everything's OK. I don't expect that idea to change any this week so the Greek bond chart moves everything else right now.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Weekly Cap
The stock markets are loving this central bank we'll save everybody move announced yesterday. S&P is up from 1150 to 1210 as of now and the European markets have moved more then that this week. This is all on the idea that Greek default got taken off the table and with that European banks failures as well. And yes Greek bonds have gone up in price but a one year Greek bond yield is still over 100%. So for those who don't speak bond, the easy math is if it's yield is 100% for one year it means a $1000 bond is selling for $500. Is that better then last weeks $400, yes. Does that still mean the bond market thinks Greece can only pay half its debt back this year, yes. Its got this 08 vibe were housing was collapsing but stocks kept going up and then explosion. If people saw a crisis coming there wouldn't be one because they'd adjust before it happend.
Weekly Cap
The stock markets are loving this central bank we'll save everybody move announced yesterday. S&P is up from 1150 to 1210 as of now and the European markets have moved more then that this week. This is all on the idea that Greek default got taken off the table and with that European banks failures as well. And yes Greek bonds have gone up in price but a one year Greek bond yield is still over 100%. So for those who don't speak bond, the easy math is if it's yield is 100% for one year it means a $1000 bond is selling for $500. Is that better then last weeks $400, yes. Does that still mean the bond market thinks Greece can only pay half its debt back this year, yes. Its got this 08 vibe were housing was collapsing but stocks kept going up and then explosion. If people saw a crisis coming there wouldn't be one because they'd adjust before it happend.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Unemployment
Another week another upward revision to last weeks initial claims number. http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/09/unemployment.html. But that doesn't matter because stocks are happy Greece is saved. Somwhow the Greek bond didn't get the message, which is strange since this is suppose to fix the Greek debt market. Once againg Bond market or stocks who's right?
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Oil Price
Conspiracy Corner
Friday, September 9, 2011
Hmmm
European Central Bank board member retires? Yen takes a drive off a cliff vs the dollar. Dows off 300+ points. 10 Year is down in the 1.9 area. There's rumors of a weekend Greek default but there has been for almost a year now but feels like something is happening just not sure what.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Where's the money going?
As you can see S&P, ES futures and Oil Price, CL futures are basically the same. Which makes perfect sense because it's not like oil is an input cost to make and move things, and it's not like we import that much oil from other counties. This is where the smiley face goes.
S&P with the 10 Year Bond, ZN futures contract. Bonds prices are staying high even as the market moves up.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Equities Behind The Curve?
As of writing, 10 Year bond yield has fallen below %2 to an all time low. All time low as in below 2009 world is ending low. Gold is at 1900 and CDS spreads in Europe only get bigger. But stocks seem to be the last to get it so are they just the one market that's right or just behind the curve everyone else set? My bets on the latter.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Market Closed
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Unemployment
Apparently I'm not the only one seeing the upward revisions every week.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/another-upward-revision-strike-factors-are-removed-leaves-initial-claims-posts-above-400k-19th-
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Why the Fed matters.
Before the Fed had to actually do QE and QE2 to make the market move, now they just hint at it and we get the same effect. Here's the fun part no ones seems to talk about. QE3 what's the cost? See if you can spot where of this 5 day chart of the UUP, dollar index etf, the Fed conference was? So are stocks really going up or is the dollar going down and since stocks are bought in dollars the price is just adjusting for a dollar that's value is declining.
Dollar goes down guess what goes up. Everything else. Here's the oil chart.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Coming Week
Friday, August 26, 2011
?
So GDP estimate's continue to drop, we're down to 1%. And now the Nasdaq is up 2% today. I'd love to hear why?
Fed Friday
Well Bernanke didn't say QE 3 and down we go but its not a panic or at least yet. Maybe because they did use the carrot out there that if things do turn bad they can jump in later. So we're still bad news is good news and good news is great news.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Morning Thoughts
Just like before http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/08/unemployment.html. today's initial unemployment number for last week was revised up.
Fun fact Apple accounts for about 15% of the QQQQ. How well did Microsoft do when Gates left?
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Morning Trade
And we're back to my favorite mind set good news is good news and bad news means the Fed will have to save us, so that's good news too. Basically everything goes up. Looks like my thought that nothing would happen was wrong. http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/08/fed-friday.html
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
USO
USO - 34.82
Oil - 77.54 - or settlement of front month CL futures contract at that time
July 20 2011
USO - 38.40
Oil - 97.80
USO - 10%
Oil - 26%
Really
Housing - http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Newhome-sales-fall-2011-could-apf-3845011766.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Europe - http://pragcap.com/cds-market-to-euro-banks-this-is-worse-than-2008
Bonds - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/4-week-bill-auction-closs-0000-bill-rates-now-negative-through-november
US Banks - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-america-scrambles-defend-itself-henry-blodgets-allegations-it-massively-undercapitalized
But don't worry the Fed will fix everything so up we go I mean look at the track record it's been awesome.
Here's my thought. The current GDP was at 1.3 last time the number was put out, since then the NY, Philly, and Richmond Fed numbers have been under estimates by a factor of 10ish so if consensuses is GDP down .2 or so we may get a 0 or negative print next time.
Morning Trade
These morning rallies have been good spots to sell for the last 2 days, can we make it 3?
Monday, August 22, 2011
Fed Friday
1. New "spending" is not really politically feasible right now as congress barely got the debt ceiling through, so I'm doubting they let the Fed increase it's balance sheet at all. So Friday comes and the Fed does nothing and the market falls off a cliff and then the next day congress acts to save the day because no one gets reelected when the market crashes. Basically the same thing that happened with TARP where congress votes no Dow drops 700 points and then the next day it gets voted through.
2. Fed just does it anyway and congress goes crazy, but the market fly's up and so everybody just lets it go because people do get reelected when the market soars.
So basically I don't see any one making any real big moves until Friday, assuming a European bank doesn't collapse by then.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Morning Thoughts
So right now the 10 Year Treasury is down to 09 world is ending levels. Last time it was this close to 2.00% the S&P was below 700. So who's right, bond market or stock market?
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
PPI
Hooray inflation's back just like the Fed wanted. Business school 101 inflation goes up stocks go up. Wait what?
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Conspiracy Corner
So the one world government idea took a step forward today, EU Government. Creating the Euro involved having every country abide by the same monetary policy with the European Central Bank, but every country had it's own fiscal policy. So, countries could do whatever they wanted with their budgets, taxes, bond, etc. There were constraints but obviously those didn't stop anybody. It was inevitable that some day one country would cause trouble and what then?
That's where it's at now, does Greece and Italy get booted from the Euro, does everybody leave the Euro for the old one country one currency, or do they move towards a single EU governement? Looks like they're choosing one EU country and one step closer to one world government or so the idea goes. I'm not sure putting France and German in one country is a good idea or one that would last that long, but we should invade Canada just in case.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Monday Recap
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Afternoon trade
If we get above Tuesday's high of 1170 on the S&P there will probably be a run to 1200. If we cannot break that then call 1100 to 1170 the new range and we'll bounce around there for a while. As with the last couple days it's all in the last hour. If it gets near 1170 and then pauses and starts to come down that might be a good place to sell out today. Retail sales tomorrow morning can really set the direction for Friday.
Unemployment
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Really? Apple?
So apparently it's offical now the world is ending.
Exhibit A
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/iPads-trump-oil-Apple-is-most-apf-3276362092.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Exhibit B
http://blog.moviefone.com/2011/08/10/a-very-harold-and-kumar-3d-christmas-photo/
Good to know that oil is no longer that important. See we're moving to a greener tomorrow and didn't even know it, but it won't matter since I'm pretty sure a 3d Harold and Kumar is the Third Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
Ron Paul Morning
Ron Paul what is money question.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Really Apple
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904007304576498384081275152.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
And this is why I started this, so I can say, Apple seriously the biggest company in the world? They make cell phones and really big cell phones and maybe an overpriced laptop somewhere too.
(AppleTV is at least useful)
Fed Tuesday
You can see the drop after the Fed statement then 2:40 straight up into the close.