Melt Up

Got that QE feel again just a slow melt up with basically no down.  The interesting part is that everything's up on what I can only think is inflation fears again?  QE2 was the Fed buying 600 billion in Treasuries with an average duration of 7 years.  So really the Fed swapped with the banks 600 billion in cash for 600 billion in bonds.  How is that inflationary?  No new money introduced 600 billion in assets and ended with 600 billion in assets, but everybody screamed hyperinflation so into stocks and commdities everyone went.  So a similar move while not inflationary is being view as such and so the cycle repeats.  But really the Fed doesn't have a choice now, if they pulled QE3 off the table the market would collapse.  So it seems like a must do for them since we've got the doctrine of market declines can not be allowed.  

Opening range

Not even a 3 point range this morning on the S&P.  High to lows are getting smaller recently.  The money question is does this pause in upward momentum mean sideways or a top?  If you watch most of the action is overnight or basically everyones still waiting for Europe to either stabilize or explode.

Melt up

Initial claims for unemployment keep getting better but is it from job growth or are that many people just running over their 22 months and falling off the map?  With that the S&P keeps melting up.  This rate we can be back to the 07 super bubble level by May and the Nasdaq can get back to 00', pets.com worth 30 billion level, too.

Analogy of the day

Stock market's like the BCS unfair, corrupt but there's took much money behind it now for wholesale change.

Unemployment rate

Here's the last couple times S&P was in the 1340ish range with unemployment rate.

Oct 06 %4.5
Apr 08 %5
Now %8.3

Not scientific but does the unemployment rate matter?

Payrolls

First thought with the NFP was, "hmm that's weird normally there's hiring for christmas then all those people are gone in January"?  Good old ZH to the explainationing http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-.  This might kill the Fed's inject money idea since unemployment is a big part of the inflation number.

Tops

S&P is about 15% from the 1550ish high in 07 and everybody has agreed that was a ridiculous super bubble, stupid, evil, etc.  But we're 15% under that and since in January the S&P was up 6% it might not take that long to get back there.  At the same time Treasuries are at an all time high and with Gold in the 1750 range and Oil just under a 100 it looks like no one can lose.  I guess central banks can save the world,  O except housing.  We're in the bad is good, low GDP doesn't mean no growth, it means the Fed will inject money and that's good for stocks.  Wait what?