Unemployment

Unemployment initial claims shot way down by 37k and last weeks number got revised up 5k.  So the standard's been 9k move 3k revision so 37k move next week we'll see it revised up 11k?  Unemployment better, GDP estimate better, but what matters is Greek and Italian bond yields are actually failing on Germany's vote to fund a bailout package.  So I'd be looking for an upward move for the next 2 days.  But Greek one year bonds are still pricing in a %50+ haircut.

Tuesday Cap

S&P ran up to the R2 line and then sold straight off.  Theory of the first half of today was another Greece bailout plan/planning, this makes what the 10th maybe?  But today's ending doesn't look like confidence on the bulls part.  And like everything else in the last couple days Greek Bonds aren't following the equities higher, so I wouldn't be real secure if I was on the long side of stocks.

Analogy of the Day

Stock market's like a party, everybody shows up at their own time, but everybody leaves at the same time.

Yahoo Headline Fun

Yahoo headline "Stocks jump on hopes for a Europe fix; Dow up 272"
Funny part is Greek bonds which are the thing that "got fixed" are still going down, so I'm not sure where this fix is really, and everybody seemed to miss this headline Home-buying season the worst in at least 50 years.  I'm not that smart but that seems bad.

Monday Morning

We had another defense of the 1120 range on the S&P. http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/09/operation-twist.html.  That's the current line in the sand for the bottom. But I'm not betting on prices going up either.  How's that for definative?

Conspiracy Corner

http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/09/conspiracy-corner.html

And now the margin increase.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/case-closed-cme-hikes-gold-silver-copper-margins

Ouch

Oil's leading the way down as it lost 6% as of this.  That right there is the best stimulus we can get cheaper energy.  Saving directly to the people.  In an odd turn Gold is falling with the rest when normally its been a safe haven play when markets drop.  As bad as it looks here European markets closed down more then %4, but the Greek one year stayed flat for at least today. 

We're a couple points north of the August S&P lows if that doesn't hold then we've got a ways to drop.

Operation Twist

Well nobody liked the Fed's move.  S&P lost 40 points and is dropping more overnight, Oil dropped 2 dollars.  Hopefully everybody waited to refinance their mortgages as the 10 year and with that mortgage rates just keep falling.

And across the pond. Greek Bonds were still up and so were Italian Bonds.  Not looking like anythings fixed over there.  Markets still pricing in Greek default of some type.

So all and all market looking like it going to keep going down.  Nasdaq hasn't been dropping like the Dow and S&P I'd expect that that change soon.  S&P August low of 1120 range is looking like a next stop.

Sit on hands Morning.

I wouldn't expect anything until after the Fed announcement later today.  What they do is anyone's guess.  Republicans sent a letter saying basically stop. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/did-republican-letter-bernanke-seal-deal-even-more-qe-jp-morgans-take 

With that Greek and Italian bond yields still moving higher.

Stagflation

Greek one year bond yield is still playing in the 130% range, but US stocks are snap changed focused on the Fed meeting hoping for something I'm not sure what?  With inflation up I'm not sure the Fed has any room to play.  They should do the August move and just say "We'll do it next time". Word of the day Stagflation.

Apple

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/apple-shares-hit-all-time-high/?partner=yahoofinance

How'd Dell do after Micheal Dell left?  How'd the Bull's do when Jordan retired?  How's the Colts doing without Mannings?

Only Thing That Matters.

Greek One Year Bond

Last week CPI, inflation, was running at the high limit of the stated Fed's acceptable range, NY and Philly numbers are showing manufacturing contraction, and unemployment's moving up, but Greece was going to get bailed out so everything's OK.  I don't expect that idea to change any this week so the Greek bond chart moves everything else right now.

Weekly Cap

The stock markets are loving this central bank we'll save everybody move announced yesterday.  S&P is up from 1150 to 1210 as of now and the European markets have moved more then that this week.  This is all on the idea that Greek default got taken off the table and with that European banks failures as well.  And yes Greek bonds have gone up in price but a one year Greek bond yield is still over 100%.  So for those who don't speak bond, the easy math is if it's yield is 100% for one year it means a $1000 bond is selling for $500.  Is that better then last weeks $400, yes.  Does that still mean the bond market thinks Greece can only pay half its debt back this year, yes.  Its got this 08 vibe were housing was collapsing but stocks kept going up and then explosion.  If people saw a crisis coming there wouldn't be one because they'd adjust before it happend.

Weekly Cap

The stock markets are loving this central bank we'll save everybody move announced yesterday.  S&P is up from 1150 to 1210 as of now and the European markets have moved more then that this week.  This is all on the idea that Greek default got taken off the table and with that European banks failures as well.  And yes Greek bonds have gone up in price but a one year Greek bond yield is still over 100%.  So for those who don't speak bond, the easy math is if it's yield is 100% for one year it means a $1000 bond is selling for $500.  Is that better then last weeks $400, yes.  Does that still mean the bond market thinks Greece can only pay half its debt back this year, yes.  Its got this 08 vibe were housing was collapsing but stocks kept going up and then explosion.  If people saw a crisis coming there wouldn't be one because they'd adjust before it happend.

Conspiracy Corner

It's already started.

http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/09/conspiracy-corner.html

Genius in cartoons

To honor Jeff.
http://xkcd.com/951/

Unemployment

Another week another upward revision to last weeks initial claims number.  http://marketvent.blogspot.com/2011/09/unemployment.html.  But that doesn't matter because stocks are happy Greece is saved.  Somwhow the Greek bond didn't get the message, which is strange since this is suppose to fix the Greek debt market.  Once againg Bond market or stocks who's right?

Oil Price

Had you been watching oil prices you might have caught the last 2 day run up early.  Oil price being the line above the S&P.

Conspiracy Corner

Will Gold keeps going up?  Better question will Gold be allowed to go up?  Right now Gold price is functioning like a currency but it's not a medium of exchange.  If the exchange part starts to happen ie. you can use gold as colateral at banks then watch out.  Limits on physical Gold will be enforced hard, margin will be raised on GC Futures, and position limits.  Basically the government needs to control the currency and when the market tries to change that the rules get changed.  Silver started to get out of control in May and margin limits went up on SI futures and you can see what happend.

Hmmm

European Central Bank board member retires?  Yen takes a drive off a cliff vs the dollar.  Dows off 300+ points.  10 Year is down in the 1.9 area.  There's rumors of a weekend Greek default but there has been for almost a year now but feels like something is happening just not sure what.

Where's the money going?

Where's the money going.

As you can see S&P, ES futures and Oil Price, CL futures are basically the same.  Which makes perfect sense because it's not like oil is an input cost to make and move things, and it's not like we import that much oil from other counties.  This is where the smiley face goes.

S&P with the 10 Year Bond, ZN futures contract.  Bonds prices are staying high even as the market moves up.

  

Gold price still also staying high.

So basically nothings changed bonds and gold are still being bought even when the S&P temporarily moves up based on whatever Europe said today.  Right or wrong Oil's the new S&P and Gold's the new dollar.

Equities Behind The Curve?

As of writing, 10 Year bond yield has fallen below %2 to an all time low.  All time low as in below 2009 world is ending low.  Gold is at 1900 and CDS spreads in Europe only get bigger.  But stocks seem to be the last to get it so are they just the one market that's right or just behind the curve everyone else set?  My bets on the latter.

Market Closed

Labor Day and the markets closed, or?  The market is not really a useful word all the time because right now yes the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE, NASDAQ are closed, so there's no stock trading.  But, as of this posting the Dow futures are down 250+ points because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and is still "open" and futures are trading.

Unemployment

Apparently I'm not the only one seeing the upward revisions every week. 
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/another-upward-revision-strike-factors-are-removed-leaves-initial-claims-posts-above-400k-19th-