S&P looks like it still wants to go lower. Oil cannot get below the 44's.

And into the 44's.

We didn't someone tell me to stay short yesterday.

Tip of Minute

Sell EVERYTHING!!!

Back to the year high

As the S&P sits as the top the of the channel it been bouncing in for 2 months the question is does it break up to the 1420 year high or stay in the current channel and start dropping. If today's gains hold and don't get slash in the last 5 minutes 1420's the bet.

Stocks are dead?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-investors-fleeing-equities-hint-122102217.html;_ylt=Ate0UePyxUPfIFa8MjV53x6iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTNybHA0NWFsBG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgTGVmdARwa2cDYjg4NTA0OTQtZjZkOS0zZGFiLWFhMmQtNjcyNzA0MDY0MzFkBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzViMzY0ZWUwLWUwOGEtMTFlMS05ZmVmLTdlOWUxMDc0YWE5YQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

Round the all time high on the S&P to 1520.  We are less then 8% from that at 1400.  Yes that sounds like a dead market people are running from?  Seriously?  So if this is dead what's good look like, up 25% a every year?  It seems the expectations are way off of reality.

NFP Friday

So the new question is does the 163k print stop QE or not?

Corn away

So I'm definitely not a farming expert, but Sunday I watched a farmer mow down his drought killed corn field.  That's the first time I've ever seen a field just mowed down so late in the summer.  I do know that corn prices have shot up and that more then half the food out there uses some corn based something, high fructose corn syrup, feed for animals, etc.  So basically it's how bad does this push inflation and does the Fed care.  It may not effect the core CPI and we'll have QE3 like he market seems to expect.  Real fun will be if the ethanol requirement for gasoline gets removed and what that will do to gas prices.

Europe still driving the car

Italian 10 year is back over 6.5%.  I know Spain is the big watch point right now and it looks bad but Italy is the next problem that's twice as big.  US Treasuries are flirting with all time highs while equities are still near the top for the year?

Italian Bonds

Italian 10 Year

Well it's not as bad as 6 months ago, but not that much better.  Greece, Spain savable.  Italy?

Inflation key

So the Philly Fed number was way down, unemployment's staying up, and basically the economy looks weak again.  The Fed keeps saying it won't move until inflation isn't even close to an issue and with Oil prices down to 78 a barrel that might happen sooner then later.

Fed rally

I guess that's why he's the chairman.
Hey if things go bad don't worry we got this.  No we don't need to do anything now it's cool, but if it's uncool later we're still good cause I told you we got this.
And everyone bought it to the tune of 300+ Dow points.

10 Year Yield < 1.5

Not really sure what to say about this.

NFP Friday

So did that jobs number just kick off QE(n)?  Oil prices have slid far enough down to quell inflation fears and with the unemployment rate going up, now feels like everything's in place for some action.  Plus people are going to start begging for intervention if the market keeps going down.  It's a fun game of what's happening in the real economy and then what will central banks do.  You need to know both now.

Facebook

Here's the requisite Facebook IPO acknowledgement since no one in the world can not talk about it.

Velocity

The interesting thing to me is the fear a couple years ago was Greece's problems would spread to Ireland and Portugal and then Spain and then Italy and then that would take the whole thing apart.  Isn't that's what's happening right now?  It's just in slow motion compared to the original idea that everything would unravel in months.  The ECB's different extend it programs changed the timeline but not the problem.  Fear seems to be tied more to velocity then actually outcomes.  Not sure if this is people having the time to hope for the best or more everyone's had time to process and accept the outcome instead of the panic high speed movement caused panic.  Either way we're still headed in the same direction people just don't seem as scared.

Night and Day

Almost a full 1% move in the first hour straight up.  This seems to be the new theme crash down overnight rally hard during the day.

Panic

Panic buying is an interesting thing.  Panic selling is people afraid of losing money "that's theirs" so panic selling comes from a place of not wanting to lose what you have.  Makes sense.  Panic buying is completely different and happens when you want to do something but don't and then watch the train start to move without you.  You don't want to lose the opportunity, the chance.  Ones based on fear the other's based on greed. Both normally end up poorly.

? Morning

Well that was a pretty quick 12, ok now 15, point run up off the bottom for the S&P.  People are just buying regardless right now so time to step off and let that crazy go by.

NFP Friday

Unemployment report wasn't good and now the S&P is off about 10 points.  The more interesting thing to me is the move down in oil.  With the Fed dual mandate of full employment and price stability they've been saying we cannot do a lot to try and reduce unemployment with inflation at the high end of their acceptable range.  But with oil prices moving down that can open up the easing window, so we're in that weird land of bad news maybe good news for stocks.

New month

So for the first time in a while the S&P was down for the last month.  Not by much but GDP growth got pulled down, unemployment is looking worse so its back to bad news = stimulus and that's good.  Why its good for stocks I don't know.  It really depends on what happens QE3, tax cuts, job initiative each one plays out differently.